Economic Realities of Hendra Virus Vaccine
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Hendra virus, as you've probably seen here and elsewhere, is back in the news as the cause of another outbreak in horses in Australia with subsequent transmission to people. This bat-borne disease is very rare but devastating, with high mortality rates in both horses and people. Currently, a veterinarian is in critical condition in the ICU of a Brisbane hospital fighting this virus, while other exposed horse farm personnel are waiting to see whether they get sick too. Last year, another veterinarian died. Because of the severity of disease, vaccination gets discussed. Development of a Hendra virus vaccine is possible and a prototype vaccine has been produced. However, the question is will such a vaccine ever get used?
Vaccines are very expensive to develop, test and market. Given the nature of the pharmaceutical industry, there usually has to be a reasonable expectation that the costs will be recovered through sale of the vaccine. Some treatments for rare diseases that have no chance at making money are produced by pharmaceutical companies as a service to society, but not every money-losing product can be made. The problem with Hendra virus, in terms of vaccination, is that it is such a rare disease. Only 7 people have been diagnosed with the infection. It's tough for companies to justify spending millions on a vaccine for such a rare disease if they don't think people will use it. Vaccines for rare diseases can be profitable if a lot of people get vaccinated (e.g. rabies). However, given the sporadic nature of Hendra virus, the limited geographic range where it occurs and the fact that it seems only people with close contact with horses are at risk, the market would be very small. Unless things change with respect to how common this disease is (and we all hope not to see any more of such a terrible disease), I doubt we'll ever see this vaccine on the market.
